UFC Picks

Man, it's been a nutty few weeks for MMA. Before we get to the picks, a little recap.

*** Randy/Mark Cuban and the UFC trading lawsuits. UFC won the first battle on this front as they got an injunction to prevent Randy from appearing at the IFL show [which I'm watching right now.] The Cuban one is the interesting one as it calls for a court to determine when Randy is free and clear to fight Fedor.

*** EliteXC had the big Kimbo/Tank show. The show was a lot of fun as I believe 5 of the 6 shows that made air had a KO [and some of those KOs were damn cool] which is really what the casual MMA fan is looking for. Kimbo/Tank was a total freak show fight but it was a fun one. And of course, EXC landed the big news of getting their shows on CBS. That's going to be huge for them and it'll be a big fork in the road for MMA as a sport. Success there opens a lot of doors for MMA on network TV. Failure cements them as "only good enough for cable." Kimbo'll be main eventing their first show on CBS in April so hopefully they can find an opponent that will play huge to the press.

*** Strike Force had a show broadcast on HDNet with Bob Sapp in the main event. That show bombed. I was bored, I fell asleep... I woke up in time to see Sapp attempt a Ric Flair entrance that lasted longer than he did in the fight. Bad, bad show.

Anyways... Picks time. Let's see where we were the last time this happened.

Picks Average For The Year: 13 out of 27 fights for a .482
Money For The Year: +$21

Here goes nothing...

Date: March 1, 2008
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Venue: Nationwide Arena


PRELIMINARY CARD
****************

Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O’Brien
ODDS: Arlovski -270, O'Brien +210
This is one of the most loaded shows that I can recall in the UFC. When you've got guys like Diego Sanchez and Arlovski on the non-televised card, you know the card is stacked. The rumors are strong that this may be Arlovski's final UFC fight but Dana White announced today that he plans to re-sign him. We'll see, I guess. Arlovski is 11-5, a former UFC Heavyweight Champion coming off a decision win over Werdum in April of '07. O'Brien is 10-0 coming off a decision win over Heath Herring in January '07. Sigh.
PREDICTION: Arlovski by KO in Rd 2
BET: None

Luke Cummo vs. Luigi Fioravanti
ODDS: Cummo -160, Fiorvanti +130
I really like Luke Cummo so I wish he'd made the main card. Cummo is 6-4 coming off a couple of wins last year. Fioravanti is 11-3 but I'm not too impressed with the people he's beaten. I'll go with Cummo.
PREDICTION: Cummo by decision
BET: None

Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Koscheck
ODDS: Hazelett +300, Koscheck -450
Koscheck is another one I'm surprised to see not make the main card - not disappointed mind you since I hate the motherfucker... but surprised. Hazelett is 10-3 coming off a three fight win streak. Koscheck is 9-2 coming off a loss to GSP after running off 5 in a row. He really should only have one loss but he had that bizarre KO loss to Drew Fickett. I hate picking Koscheck but I can't imagine he'd lose. He'll stall it out at worst. The odds are enough to take a flyer on Hazelett though.
PREDICTION: Koscheck by decision
BET: $10 on Hazelett to win $30

David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez
ODDS: Bielkheden +300, Sanchez =450
Bielkheden is 12-5 and making his UFC debut. Diego is 17-2 coming off two decision losses. You've gotta imagine this poor bastard is being fed to Diego to try to get him back on track. He was supposed to be the Ultimate Fighter Golden Boy... the easy lock for the first UF contestant to win gold. If Diego can get back in his game, this should be an easy fight for him. But the odds are too long not to take a chance.
PREDICTION: Sanchez by TKO in Rd 2
BET: $10 on Bielkheden to win $30

Jorge Gurgel vs. John Halverson
ODDS: Gurgel -200, Halverson +160
Jorge is 11-3 coming off a decision loss last October. Halverson is 16-5 on a three fight win streak but in his first UFC fight since losing to Roger Huerta last February.
PREDICTION: Gurgel by RNC in Rd 2
BET: None


MAIN CARD
*********

Jon Fitch vs. Chris Wilson
ODDS: Fitch -550, Wilson +350
Fitch is... are you ready for this? He's 15-2... on a 14 fight win streak! Chris Wilson is 13-3 on a four fight win streak. A 14 fight win streak? How do you pick against that? But at those odds, you gotta take a chance to bet against it.
PREDICTION: Fitch via RNC in Rd 2 to get the next title shot at 170
BET: $10 on Wilson to make $35

Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner
ODDS: Okami -240, Tanner +190
Okami is 20-4 and was running off quite the nice win streak until he had a decision loss to Rich Franklin. So, now he's trying to get back on the winning path and see if he can get a shot at the winner of tomorrow's main event. Tanner is 12-6 but will be in his first fight in two years. This is a win-win for Dana. A win by Okami puts him back in line for a shot at Silva/Henderson. A win by Evan gives another marketable fighter in that division that looks like it will need some fresh blood after tomorrow night.
PREDICTION: Okami by decision
BET: $10 on Tanner to win $19

Chris Leben vs. Alessio Sakara
ODDS: Leben -165, Sakara +135
Leben is 17-4 coming off a great KO win. He just signed a new contract and tends to be one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC often to his own detriment. Sakara is 11-6 coming off a win. This should be a fun fight. Both guys tend to either KO their opponent or get KOd so expect the fists to fly.
PREDICTION: Leben by KO in Rd 2
BET: $10 on Leben to win $6

Heath Herring vs. Cheick Kongo
ODDS: Herring +145, Kongo -175
Herring is 27-13 and is one of those fighters that kinda hold a gatekeeper role. They have pretty good records but usually lose to the big names. He's got wins over guys like Mark Kerr and Gary Goodridge but losses to Cro Cop, Fedor, Noguiera, etc. Kongo is 11-3-1 coming off two wins and I suppose can be credited as running Cro Cop out of the UFC. He's one of my favs but I think he needs more polish to challenge for the title. Noguiera's too much for him to handle. But I think he can get past Herring and probably will be a sacrificial lamb title defense for Nogueira.
PREDICTION: Kongo by decision
BET: $10 on Herring to win $14.50

Middleweight Title Match: Anderson Silva vs Dan Henderson
ODDS: Silva -160, Henderson +130
The final time that a PRIDE championship will be defended essentially ending a major era in the sport's history. This should be an incredible match. Ever since Silva debuted with the impressive KO over Leben and then totally destroyed Rich Franklin twice, many have wondered just who stands between Anderson Silva and cleaning out the division. That's gotta be Dan Henderson. If Silva gets past Henderson, Dana's going to have issues in finding a sellable opponent for Silva. He just looks dominant out there. If he can convince Matt Hughes to go up in weight for it, he could see it but no one will give Hughes a chance. If he can get Wanderlei to drop down to face Anderson, that'll sell a ton. If Hendo wins, you've got more options. Hendo's got a great chance in this one. Since it was announced, this has been my most eagerly anticipated fight of the year. My heart says Silva gets another huge KO after Henderson gets worn down a bit trying to G and P. My head says Henderson follows the Rampage gameplan and does enough on the ground to get it to the judges. I'm going with my heart on this one.
PREDICTION: Anderson Silva by TKO in Rd 4.
BET: $40 on Silva to win $25


And that's that. Enjoy the fights, people!