2008-04-02

PICK: David over Goliath via slingshot in Rd 2

Yes, it's that time again. There's a UFC Fight Night tonight so it's time to continue the ongoing drama of Blue's 2008 UFC Picks.

First, let's see how I'm doing so far this year...

21 out of 37 for the year for .568
Moneywise - +86.50 for the year

A looooooooooooot of fights tonight. 12 fights, good grief. Alright, let's get crackin', son!

Location: Broomfield, Colo.
Venue: Broomfield Event Center
Broadcast: Spike TV

PRELIMINARY CARD
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Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
ODDS: Speer -220, Johnson +180
Johnson is 4-1 coming off a loss to Rich Clementi. Speer is 9-2 coming off a loss to Mac Danzig. This one really could go either way. I'm going with Speer since he has the experience edge.
PICK: Tommy Speer via TKO (strikes in Rd 1)
BET: None

Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
ODDS: Mitichyan +160, Sotiropoulos -200
Mitichyan is 5-1 coming off a three fight win streak - no one of note on his record though. George is 8-2 and is on a two fight win streak. I'm going with George.
PICK: George via submission [RNC in Rd 2]
BET: None

Samy Schiavo vs. Clay Guida
ODDS: Guida -600, Schiavo +400
Schiavo is 10-4 on a six fight win streak. Clay Guida met my friends Phil & Stacy recently - oh, and he's 22-9. He's got a real spotty record though with losses to Huerta, Griffin, and Din Thomas of all people in 2007. Just because I know it'll piss Phil off, I'm picking the upset!
PICK: Samy Schiavo via TKO (strikes in Rd 1)
BET: $15 on Schiavo to win $60

Jeff Cox vs. Manny Gamburyan
ODDS: Cox +500, Manny -800
Cox is 9-4 with a spotty track record. Manny is 7-2 with one of the losses that fluke shoulder injury in the Diaz fight. This looks like a setup to build Manny back up. I'm picking Manny but the bet on Cox is worth a shot.
PICK: Manny via submission (guillotine in Rd 2)
BET: $15 on Cox to win $75

Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
ODDS: Neer +!60, Thomas -200
Neer is 23-6-1 in his first fight back in the UFC since August of '06. Since then, he's fought seven times - fighting six times in 2007. Impressive. Thomas is 20-7 coming off a first round loss to Kenny Florian. I'm thinking Neer is the hungrier fighter right now and I'm picking the slight upset.
PICK: Josh Neer via decision
BET: None

Marcus Aurelio vs. Ryan Roberts
ODDS: Marcus -800, Roberts +500
Jeez. Another long odds fight. Marcus is 15-5 but only fought twice in 2007 - a loss to Guida and a win over a scrub. But he's beaten Gomi once and taken him to a decision a second time - an impressive feat. Roberts is 8-2 coming in on a two fight win streak to make his UFC debut. I'm picking Maximus to win but I'm tempted by the long odds as usual.
PICL: Marcus Aurelio via submission (armbar in Rd 1)
BET: $15 on Roberts to win $75

TELEVISED CARD
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Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
ODDS: Edgar -220, Maynard +180
Edgar is 8-0 coming off a win over Spencer Fisher. Maynard's 4-0. A battle of the undefeated. I'm a little more impressed with the competition that Edgar has faced so far so I'm picking a win for him.
PICK: Edgar by decision
BET: None

Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
ODDS: Diaz -145, Pellegrino +115
Very close odds on this one. Diaz is 8-2 on a three fight win streak. Pellegrino is 11-3 with some decent names on his record. Diaz has looked unstoppable in his last few fights so I'm going with him.
PICK: Diaz by decision
BET: None

Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
ODDS: Houston -250, Irvin +190
Ahhh... Houston Alexander. The world wanted to make him a superstar so badly after the two surprise KOs but Thiago Silva brought him back down to Earth. This will probably be the fight that decides if Dana keeps Houston around. Irvin is 13-4 but doesn't have the most impressive record against anyone with a name (although he does have a NC on his record for a fight against Bobby Southworth where they both fell from the cage... good shit.) I think Houston realizes if he loses here, he's probably gone and will fight accordingly.
PICK: Houston by TKO (strikes in Rd 1)
BET: None

Tim Boetsch vs. Matt Hamill
ODDS: Hamill -180, Boetsch +150
Hamill is 3-1 and is coming off that bullshit decision loss to Bisping. I expect he'll be out to prove a point tonight. Boetsch is 7-1 and this is his "reward" for stepping into a late fight with David Heath back in Feb. He'll be hungry to make sure he can stay in the UFC. I'm guessing this'll be quite the slugfest.
PICK: Hamill by TKO (strikes in Rd 2)
BET: $25 on Hamill to win $14

Thiago Alves vs Karo Parisyan
ODDS: Karo -170, Alves +140
Thiago is 13-3 and on a four fight win streak. Karo is 18-4 on a three fight win streak. Both men are looking to get in the picture to fight the winner of Serra/GSP. Karo also serves in kind of a gatekeeper role for the division so this should be an interesting fight. Karo gets treated as an afterthought but he's no pushover. He's got wins over some top guys in the division.
PICK: Karo by decision
BET: None

Kenny Florian vs Joe Lauzon
ODDS: KenFlo -185, Lauzon +155
I love me some Kenny Florian. He's 8-3 on a three fight win streak and is looking to get the winner of Sherk/Penn. Lauzon is 16-3 on a six fight win streak including his stunning win over Jens Pulver. This should be an excellent fight and really could go either way quite easily. I'm gonna be like George Michael though... I'm gonna have faith in my boy KenFlo.
PICK: Florian by submission [RNC in Rd 2]
BET: $30 to win $16

And that's that. Check back tomorrow to see how I did.

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