UFC Picks

A quick review...

28 out of 49 for the year for .571
Moneywise - $126.50 for the year

Annnnnnnd here goes...

UFC 83
Location: Montreal, Canada
Venue: Bell Centre

Prelims
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Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez
ODDS: Morris +200, Velasquez -260
Morris is 9-2 riding a 4 fight win streak and making his UFC debut. Velasquez is 2-0, also making his UFC debut. This is a tough fight to pick. Velasquez must've been hella impressive to be that big of a favorite off two fights. He's a big, mean looking kid from his photos too.
PICK: Velasquez by TKO [strikes] in Rd 1
BET: None

Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia
ODDS: Maia -180, Herman +140
Ed, from TUF fame, is 14-4 on a three fight win streak. Maia is 6-0 in his second UFC fight... and I can't remember a thing about the first one. I'll stick with the odds on this one.
PICK: Maia by submission [RNC] in Rd 2
BET: None

Jonathan Goulet vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
ODDS: Hironaka -240, Goulet +190
Hironaka is 11-4 coming off a loss to Thiago Alves and a prior loss to Fitch. Goulet is 21-9 on a two fight losing streak. Both of these guys are going absolutely nowhere in the division and this is simply a space-filling match.
PICK: Hironaka by decision
BET: None

Alan Belcher vs. Jason Day
ODDS: Belcher -450, Day +300
Goodness. Quite the odds on this one. Belcher is 12-4 on a two fight win streak but he's lost to guys like Kendall Grove and Okami so he's not going anywhere in the division. Day is 16-5 on a four fight win streak and making his UFC debut. He's a Canadian so that explains why he's on the show. I'm gonna give the newcomer a shot.
PICK: Day by TKO [strikes] in Rd 2
BET: $10 on Day to win $30

Rich Clementi vs. Sam Stout
ODDS: Clementi +120, Stout -160
Clementi is 30-12-1 on a four fight win streak but he's got a loss to Din Thomas on his record so how serious can you take him. Stout is 13-3-1 on a two fight win streak... and he's from Canada. Go figure.
PICK: Stout by TKO [strikes] in Rd 2
BET: None

Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald
ODDS: MacDonald -165, Doerksen +135
Doerkson is 39-11 on a two fight win streak. MacDonald is 19-9 and was on a bit of a streak before falling to Rich Franklin and Okami. Not the worst people to lose to.
PICK: MacDonald by decision
BET: None

MAIN CARD
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Marc Bocek vs. Mac Danzig
ODDS: Danzig -500, Bocek +300
Good grief, the odds are bad on some of these fights. I bet Dana gets pissed at the oddsmakers for stacking so many matches like they're that bad of a mismatch. Bocek is 5-1. Danzig is 17-4-1 coming off his only UFC win. Shrug. Take your pick.
PICK: Danzig by TKO [Rd 2]
BET: Throw a tenner on Bocek to win $30

Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
ODDS: Bisping -330, McCarthy +260
Bisping is 14-1 coming off his only loss... but he really should be coming off two losses in a row. This is his first fight at a lighter weight class so theoretically he should be powering his opponent around the cage. McCarthy is 10-4 with nothing of note on his record and apparently he cut MAJOR weight to make the limit for this fight so I expect him to gas out early and get pummeled.
PICK: Bisping by TKO [strikes] in Rd 2
BET: I'll drop $10 on McCarthy to cover the upset for $26

Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
ODDS: Quarry -265, Starnes +205
Quarry's 9-2 and on a bit of a roll minus a loss to Rich Franklin. Starnes is 8-2-1 and going nowhere. Quarry needs to steamroll him to get some attention from Joe Silva.
PICK: Quarry by TKO [strikes] in Rd 1
BET: None

Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
ODDS: Franklin -320, Lutter +210
Franklin's coming off another big loss to Anderson Silva and is really in a no-win position here. If he wins, he's not getting another shot at Silva so he'll have to either wait til someone beats Silva [not happening any time soon!] or he'll have to change weight classes if he wants to challenge for a title again. Lutter's 9-4 also coming off a loss to Silva. He needs a good showing to stay in the UFC's good graces after failing to make weight against Silva. That was embarrassing for him and for the UFC. The Countdown show did a good job of making you root for him to make a comeback though. I'll take a flyer on Lutter realizing he's in a bad spot.
PICK: Lutter by submission - triangle in Rd 2
BET: $20 on Lutter to win $42

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre (title-unification bout)
ODDS: GSP -500, Serra +300
This is an intriguing fight to me and really the main reason anyone wants to see this show. Everyone is predicting GSP knocks him flat and is re-anointed as arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. A lot of trash talk has flown both ways. A lot of people claiming disrespect by the other. Serra is in a no-lose position here. If he loses, everyone expected him to lose and he's got money in a grudge match with Matt Hughes and a rubber match with GSP. If he wins, he's beaten the heir apparent... twice. Everyone is expecting GSP to be a lot more focused on this one but I have a nagging doubt that he will be. It's hard to be focused when everyone in the free world says you're going to win easily. As such...
PICK: Matt Serra by TKO [strikes] in Rd 2
BET: The remaining $50 on Serra to win $150 if he pulls off the big upset