UFC Picks

Here goes nothing...

Just for review:
Picks Average For The Year: .500 (9 out of 18)
Money For The Year: +$57

Date: Feb. 2, 2008
Location: Las Vegas, Nev.
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
Broadcast: Pay-Per-View

PRELIMINARY CARD
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Rob Emerson vs. Keita Nakamura
Odds: Nakamura -265, Emerson +205
Emerson carries a record of 6-6. He was riding a four win streak until the bizarre No Contest with Gray Maynard last June. 9 of his 12 career fights have gone the distance so don't look for a big KO in this one. Nakamura is 14-2-2 on his career. He's coming off a first round KO win but had two decision losses in the UFC before that. Maybe it's a cage thing?
PICK: Nakamura by decision
BET: No bet

Tim Boetsch VS. David Heath
Odds: Boetsch +210, Heath -270
Boetsch is 6-1 coming off his only career loss [a decision.] This is his UFC debut. Heath is 7-2 on his career and he's coming off the only two losses... one to Babalu and one to Lyoto... not bad.
PICK: Heath by RNC in Rd 2
BET: No bet

Marvin Eastman vs. Terry Martin
Odds: Eastman +160, Martin -200
Eastman is 14-7-1 and at 37 is on the downside of his career. He's the guy who got brought in and fed to Rampage in Quinton's UFC debut. That was his first UFC fight in years so it's obvious what his role is in the UFC's eyes. Martin is 16-3 coming off a loss to Chris Leben in that crazy Leben last minute KO a few months back. This is a match designed to get Martin back on track as he was on a bit of a roll before the Leben fight.
PICK: Martin by TKO in Rd 2
BET: No bet

Kyle Bradley vs. Chris Lytle
Odds: Lytle -600, Bradley +400
Wowsers. Steep odds there. That might be worth an upset bet. Lytle is 24-15-5 and is probably best known for losing to Serra in the TUF Finale and then taking Hughes to the limit. He does have a win over Pete Spratt on his resume but as my friend Poff and I were discussing last month, I think I might be able to take Pete Spratt. Bradley is 13-4 in his UFC debut... nothing much of note on his record. This is going to be one of those "pick one guy to win, bet on the other."
PICK: Lytle by triangle in Rd 1
BET: Kyle Bradley - $30 to win $120

Tyson Griffin vs. Gleison Tibau
Odds: Griffin -450, Tibau +300
More steep odds. Griffin is 10-1 and has been on a tear through UFC. Most of his fights have been going to decision but he's been putting on some of the most exciting fights which makes the UFC happy. Tibau is 15-4 on a four fight win streak. I think this might be closer than the odds would show.
PICK: Griffin by decision
BET: Gleison Tibau - $30 to win $90


MAIN SHOW
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Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
Odds: Horn +185, Marquardt -225
Horn owns one of the craziest records I've ever seen at 79-16-5... good grief. But he really hasn't had a win of note since David Loiseau in 2004. Marquardt is 25-7-2 and was on a six fight win streak until Anderson Silva cut that shit short back in July.
PICK: Marquardt by decision
BET: No bet

Ricardo Almeida vs. Rob Yundt
Odds: None
Almeida has a career record of 8-2 but hasn't had a fight since 2004. Yundt is 6-0 making his UFC debut. Jeez, no wonder they're not taking action on this one.
PICK: Yundt by TKO in Rd 1
BET: No bet

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia (for interim heavyweight title)
Odds: Nogueira -165, Sylvia +135
Sad, sad, sad. Nogueira vs Couture would have rocked my fuckin' socks but instead, the MMA cockroach Tim Sylvia survives to be in another title match again. Minotauro is 30-4-1 with wins over some of the best in the MMA game [Barnett, Werdum, Cro Cop, and a ton more.] He won his UFC debut over Herring but it wasn't a dominating performance. Maybe the Pride Curse? Maybe the cage? Who knows. Sylvia is 24-3 with some of the most boring [but effective] fights ever. He's the eternally hated heavyweight champ/challenger and I can very easily imagine him using his reach to keep Nogueira off the mat, clinching whenever Minotauro gets close, and just doing enough to stall out a decision win. I really, really, really hope Nogueira can finish Sylvia and I'm sure the UFC does as well. But how can you not imagine Sylvia winning the belt and wearing it everywhere forever? I'm gonna split my pick again.
PICK: Nogueira by submission in Rd 3
BET: Sylvia $20 to win $27 but I feel fuckin' dirty doing it.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Odds: Lesnar -150, Mir +120
The rumor is that the oddsmakers put Lesnar as the favorite because they figured that's where the money was going to come in anyways, not because they think he'll win. Lesnar is 1-0 in MMA with an impressive win over a unimpressive opponent. We know he can wrestle, we know he's strong as a fuckin' beast, and we know he weighed in at 265... the upper limit for heavyweights. Big motherfucker. Mir is still riding the comeback trail and this is his chance to get right back in line for that title shot. In fact, if Mir pulls off a win here, I bet he gets the next title match. If Brock does... not as sure. Mir is 10-3 in his career but really hasn't been the same since the accident. He's a dangerous opponent for Brock though. Brock's All Access was impressive with his workout but I didn't see him working on his jiu-jitsu like he told us he was. If he's not prepared on the ground, he's gonna be in trouble. My heart doesn't know who to pick here either. Part of me wants to see Brock lose for a lot of reasons. He walked out on the company that made him so he could go play football and when he failed at that, he went to get a paycheck to pro wrestle in Japan... then bailed on them [with their title belt] to sit at home to hold out for more money... _then_ he went to MMA. So don't buy their bullshit that he left the WWE for "real competition." This is a moneygrab and he went to the last option he had left after the WWE turned him down when he wanted to come back. Part of me wants to see Brock win just to see the MMA snobs eat their own asses that a pro wrestler came in and handed a former champ his ass. And I still have that dream of Cro Cop kicking his fucking skull off in Japan [although I hear they're talking of doing a UFC show in Croatia which would have to main event the Pro Wrestler Hunter-Killer.] Sigh. What to do.

PICK: Brock Lesnar by decision [don't think he'll have the tools in place to finish him but he's strong enough to pull a Sylvia against the fence and hold him down on the ground]
BET: Mir [$20 to win $24]

Check back on Monday for the results.